Baseload is the minimum amount of electricity that we need. Some argue that it is a dated concept because the new electricity system will be based on renewables with batteries and demand side flexibility automatically matching supply and demand. For others it remains useful and a provides a definition of the amount of low carbon always on (perhaps nuclear) that is needed.
Some numbers: Last year in the UK the baseload lowest demand level was 15GW on Thursday 22nd August at 3:30am in the morning, whereas the average demand in the UK was 31 GW, and the maximum peak demand was 45GW on Monday 15th January at 5:30pm when the temperature in London was just around freezing.
What future should we be designing for?
It’s important to understand what the electricity was being used for in those mild summer mornings, a few EVs were being charged, a few shop lights had been left on, but mostly it was industry and business who run 24-hour operations – the car plants, the data centres, the distribution depots.
This baseload level is viewed as the level that it is very hard for people to be flexible on when it is used, try suggesting that Amazon closes operations, or that the bread isn’t baked fresh.
What was different in the January peak? All businesses and shops open, we were cooking our dinners, heating our homes, and lights were on in every home and business.
The uncomfortable reality for the proponents of the end of baseload is that these needs are also hard to shift, the children need lights for their homework between 4pm and bedtime.
Of course energy efficiency will help, as will the continued deindustrialisation of the economy, but batteries aren’t likely to help much here. Today’s battery capacity in the UK would keep us going for about 5 minutes, by 2030 this might be nearer 20 mins, but not enough to make a big difference.
So, maybe baseload is here to stay, and we need to find low carbon always on generation to provide it.
