We’ve made it to basecamp with the changes that we have made so far. We’ve been picking off the easier items, wealthy middle classes have driven EV adoption, same for heat pumps, generous CfDs have built windfarms.
The next pitch is much steeper. We want to run a 95% clean electricity system in 5 years’ time, possibly introduce locational pricing in 7 years, ban new gas boilers in 10 years, have new car sales 100% EV by the same time.
Tasks that seemed easy on the hike to basecamp will be much harder. We need to switch from walking to climbing, we’ll regret some of the choices we made on the way in, and we’ll need a guide and oxygen to get up. Most importantly, our mindset needs to change to knocking the bastard off.
Surely the last thing we need to do is a massive internal industry reorganisation when time is running out.
There is a critical path of three essential changes that we must make: market reform, simplifying governance, and building a larger and smarter electricity network. If we get them right, then most of the other changes will follow.
But decarbonising home heating is different, getting up this ice-wall needs to be a national mission for which we can rely on none of our existing capabilities, we will need axes and crampons for this one.
Getting up this mountain looks daunting, and it will probably take us longer than we want it to, but it is possible if we get our market, governance and network in order.
