To achieve Net Zero, we need find non carbon emitting ways to provide around 1,200 TWh of useful energy (also known as Final Energy), Today, 75% of this energy is provided by fossil fuels.
A few simple calculations reveal the scale of the challenge.
If we green and double today’s electricity system to 600 TWh, and at the same time green and double existing heat provision and biofuels to 100 TWh, we are still 500 TWh short.
If deindustrialisation of the UK economy continues, demand could reduce by a further 100 TWh, but we’re still 400 TWh short.
NESO’s Future Scenarios fill this gap with a combination of using CCUS attached to Gas fired generation and widespread hydrogen use. It feels optimistic to be relying on unproven technologies.
So, this will probably come from fossil fuels. Due to the inefficiency of converting fossil fuels this equates to around 800 TWh of oil and gas. This is a huge improvement on the 2,500 TWh that we use today, but it’s not Net Zero. It’s about the same as removing all oil from today’s system.
700 TWh of a total need for 1,600 TWh (1,200 + 400 due to fossil fuel inefficiency) is 43%, so we will have moved from 75% fossil fuels today, to 57% fossil fuels by 2050.
What to do? Embark on an ambitious programme of market reform, consumer engagement, building nuclear, energy efficiency measures (especially home insulation) and reforming regulation.
