This goes against one of the central axioms of the energy transition which is that energy use will at least triple by 2050. In the UK electricity demand has been falling in the UK since 2010 and I hear that similar numbers are reported in France and elsewhere in Europe.
As we reduce fossil fuels, electricity demand should increase. We hear about data centres that use more electricity than small countries, a growing population, more EVs, electric trains and busses.
Why is this happening?
Efficiency has a major role here, in 2010 we had a few low energy lightbulbs in our house, today it’s all of them. In 2010 the average electricity bill was £450, today it’s more than doubled to £967, people are clearly being more careful. Mild winters also reduce demand. There have been issues with grid connections. We continue to shift manufacturing offshore, deindustrialising to a services-based economy. Our post pandemic world has shifted consumption.
What will make the 3x more electricity prophecy come true?
Prices are reducing, and with this businesses and people will use more. The growth in electric transport will also drive demand (EVs and trains). The data centres will get connected. Homes will move to electric heating.
There is a risk that we see these numbers and choose to delay infrastructure investment, which will bite us later.
We are still going to need a bigger grid.
